{
  "id": "01",
  "slug": "learning-from-observations",
  "title": "What can be learned without the answer?",
  "short_title": "Learning from observations",
  "question": "Can a retained predictive state support useful choices without being given the hidden regime or a teacher's action values?",
  "summary": "Retained history helped an observation-trained recurrent model. A structured estimator still did better.",
  "status": "Scoped positive result",
  "access": "Public methods summary · full run archive not published",
  "record": "Observation-only learning study, reviewed 16 September 2026",
  "setup": "In an isolated partially observed task, a recurrent model was trained to predict observations. Hidden-regime labels and teacher action-value targets were excluded. The comparison asked whether retaining state improved later decisions.",
  "intervention": "Compare the retained-history condition with a state-reset control, and retain a structured hidden Markov model as a simpler competing explanation.",
  "metric": "Reported mean utility · higher is better · task-specific scale",
  "bars": [
    [
      "Retained recurrent state",
      0.805667
    ],
    [
      "State reset",
      0.577487
    ],
    [
      "Structured HMM",
      0.817264
    ]
  ],
  "result": "History retention improved the reported utility relative to resetting state. The structured hidden Markov model remained stronger than the recurrent model, so neural complexity was not the winning explanation.",
  "limit": "This is a frozen-weight, isolated experimental comparison. It does not establish continuous learning in live Luna, experiential memory, or subjective awareness.",
  "next": "Test whether a retained estimate changes a real later decision in a continuing project, against a simple estimator with the same information and budget.",
  "public_record_id": "NR-2026-001",
  "reviewed": "2026-09-16",
  "artifact_kind": "Public study summary, not an executable reproduction package",
  "verification": "Internal source/report review; full numerical comparison not independently re-executed for publication",
  "external_replication": "Not established"
}